The impact of the sharp fluctuation of the hottest

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The impact of rapid fluctuations in paper prices on the paper industry in Changzhou, Jiangsu Province

release date: Source: Changzhou investigation team editor in charge: Yu Jia browsing times: 2543 copyright and disclaimer

core tip: since September 2016, domestic paper prices have accelerated, during which there has been a sharp rise and fall, which has had a great impact on the healthy development of the market. In order to understand the impact of this round of rapid price fluctuations on Changzhou's paper industry, the Jiangsu Changzhou survey team of the National Bureau of Statistics recently conducted a special survey on relevant enterprises

[China Packaging News] since September 2016, domestic paper prices have accelerated, with sharp rises and falls during the period, which has had a great impact on the healthy development of the market. In order to understand the impact of this round of rapid price fluctuations on Changzhou's paper industry, the Jiangsu Changzhou survey team of the National Bureau of Statistics recently conducted a special survey on relevant enterprises

I. The price of major paper products doubled out of the market

(I) the price of major domestic paper products doubled in one year. According to the data jointly released by the China economic climate monitoring center of the National Bureau of statistics and zhuochuang information, in September 2017, the average price of corrugated paper was 5264 yuan/ton, up 23.8% month on month and 105.7% year on year; The average price of carton board paper was 5713 yuan/ton, up 21.6% month on month and 84.8% year on year. On October, the average price of corrugated paper was 5730 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.9% over the average price in September. On October 19, the average price of carton board broke through the 6000 yuan mark, reaching 6250 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.4% over the average price in September

(II) the highest price of major paper products was in October. The rising trend of domestic paper products in the past year is as follows: the price rise started in September 2016, from the initial use of thyristor for phase-shifting trigger control of power components to today's use of a variety of power modules to achieve pulse width modulation control. January 2017 was the first peak of price rise, with an increase of about 60%; Prices began to fall around the Spring Festival and reached the trough in May, with a fall of about 25%; At the end of May, the upward trend began to recover, with the largest monthly increase, reaching the highest point in October, doubling the year-on-year increase, and maintaining a continuous upward trend

(III) recently, the purchase price of waste paper has soared and plummeted. According to the person in charge of a paper industry in Jintan, on October 20, the purchase price of waste paper was about 3200 yuan/ton, up more than 128.6% from last year's yuan/ton, but within four days from October 21, the purchase price fell to about 1600 yuan/ton; There was a retaliatory rise within four days from October 25, reaching about 2800 yuan/ton, and the price showed signs of stabilizing at the end of October

second, policy factors are the main factors affecting prices

(I) eliminate backward production capacity. In 2016, the country accelerated the elimination of backward production capacity in the paper packaging industry. Before the G20 summit in September 2016, it focused on the suspension or production restriction of paper enterprises using waste paper as raw material in seven provinces and cities in East China and North China. Coupled with the increase of transportation costs, the depreciation of the RMB and other factors, the price of waste paper has entered a significant upward channel since September 2016

(II) foreign garbage is prohibited from entering the country. At present, 70% of China's papermaking raw materials come from waste paper, of which 36% rely on imports. In July 2017, the general office of the State Council issued the implementation plan for prohibiting the entry of foreign garbage and promoting the reform of the solid waste import management system. The plan not only specifies the requirements for improving the scale of enterprises processing and utilizing imported waste paper and cracking down on illegal import of waste paper, but also stipulates that the import of unsorted waste paper will be comprehensively prohibited from December 31

(III) environmental protection policies are tightened. In recent years, the Ministry of environmental protection of the people's Republic of China has made great efforts to rectify "scattered and dirty" enterprises, which has also objectively limited the production capacity of paper products. Since April 2017, the Ministry of environmental protection has begun to strengthen the supervision of air pollution prevention and control, and since September, it has implemented the air pollution control action in autumn and winter to strengthen the supervision. Twice, the paper production enterprises that do not meet the environmental protection requirements have stopped production

(IV) false market news. At the end of October, the market price soared and plummeted, which was caused by false rumors in the market. On October 21, the market began to rumor that China would import 600000 tons of finished paper from Vietnam and that the state would liberalize the import restrictions of foreign waste paper, resulting in the price doubling from half to half within eight trading days, showing a situation of cliff like decline and rocket like rise, and the market price was out of control and chaotic

(V) demand continues to rise. In 2016, the express business volume in the mainland exceeded 31.2 billion pieces for the first time, and the corrugated box base paper used behind it reached 46million tons, accounting for 1/32 of the total global consumption, which will continue to grow at a high speed in 2017

other factors leading to the continuous rise of paper prices are related to the current domestic stock of waste paper and the imperfect recycling system of waste paper, as well as the difficulty of foreign waste paper entering the country, resulting in supply exceeding demand, making the price of waste paper soar

III. The impact of price fluctuations on Changzhou paper enterprises

(I) the rise in raw material costs of enterprises in the whole industrial chain. According to a paper industry (papermaking) in Jintan, an upstream enterprise, the main raw material of the enterprise is waste paper. The doubling of the purchase price of waste paper in one year has brought about a sharp rise in the production cost of the enterprise. Facing the ups and downs of waste paper prices, enterprises dare not stockpile raw materials on a large scale, and it is difficult to give full play to their production capacity

a paper shop (wholesale enterprise) in Zhonglou District of the midstream industry, the main wholesale product is imported cow cards. At the beginning of 2017, the import price was 4700 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of more than 20%. The price on October 25 was about 7000 yuan/ton

a Cultural Co., Ltd. (printing) in Xinbei District, a downstream enterprise, mainly uses kraft paper, and the feed price has increased from 5 yuan/sheet (250g) at the beginning of the year to 5.8 yuan/sheet; A packaging Co., Ltd. (making packaging boxes) in Wujin District mainly produces coated paper, the raw material. The price has increased from 3 yuan/square at the beginning of the year to 3.7 yuan/square at present, and the highest in August is 4 yuan/square

(II) the product sales prices of upstream and midstream enterprises have risen. With the sharp rise in the price of raw materials, upstream and midstream enterprises have also raised the price of their products accordingly. The ex factory selling price of a paper industry in Jintan District, an upstream enterprise, was yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. The highest selling price reached 6100 yuan/ton in July, and the current selling price is about 5400 yuan/ton. The wholesale product price of a paper shop (wholesale enterprise) in Zhonglou District of the midstream industry is increased by 3%-5% on the basis of the price of imported raw materials as the final sales price. Due to the great pressure of market competition, downstream enterprises have increased the price of products by less than 10% in order to enhance the commercial viscosity of end consumers. For example, the person in charge of a cultural company in Xinbei district said that in order not to lose customers, the company has no plan to increase prices at present, but it does not rule out the possibility of price increases in the later period

(III) the profit impact of enterprises at different levels of the industrial chain is different. From the perspective of upstream enterprises, the data of the Municipal Bureau of statistics shows that in 2017, the number of paper-making enterprises above Designated Size in the city was 44, with a main revenue of 4.86 billion yuan and a profit of 270 million yuan, an increase of 18.4% and 91.9% respectively year-on-year. The output of machine-made paper and paperboard was 128000 tons, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year. Taking a paper company in Jintan district as an example, the gross profit margin of the enterprise this year increased by more than 10% year-on-year. From the perspective of midstream enterprises, the person in charge of a paper bank in Zhonglou district said that the gross profit margin of the enterprise doubled due to the good price range of paper products and the large inventory in 2016. From the perspective of downstream enterprises, most of them showed a downward trend in gross profit. According to the relevant person in charge of a culture Co., Ltd. in Xinbei district and a packaging Co., Ltd. in Wujin District, the gross profit margin of the enterprise will decline by more than 20%, and the enterprise operation will face more difficulties than last year

in the carton manufacturing industry chain, the primary factory is the base paper enterprises, that is, those enterprises that benefit from the sharp rise in paper prices, the secondary factory is the cardboard factory, such as the enterprises producing corrugated paper and carton board, and the tertiary factory is the carton factory. Base paper factories are mostly large-scale paper factories, which control the pricing power of the paper industry. Cardboard factories do not face end customers, and can adjust prices synchronously with the price rise of the original paper factory. However, carton factories are mostly scattered small factories, facing end customers. Whether or not the price can be adjusted depends on the bargaining power; Secondly, carton factories often lock in carton prices for a period of time in the future with customers in the form of long-term contracts, so there is no way to easily adjust prices

IV. price fluctuations have both opportunities and challenges for Changzhou enterprises

(I) challenges faced by enterprises

1. Challenge to the prediction of dial indicator pointer jitter of standard dynamometer such as policy 3. At present, the fluctuation of paper prices is mainly caused by domestic and international markets, which is dominated by the impact of domestic policies. In this rapidly changing market situation, Changzhou enterprises' ability to predict national finance, policies and keeping up with the domestic paper giant (Nine Dragons Paper) is a major challenge

2. Challenges to market prediction. The market price fluctuates violently in the short term and is bullish in the long term. How Changzhou enterprises make use of the price peaks and valleys to continuously adjust the inventory of mechanical testing equipment, which is the most common among building materials manufacturers, and improve the profit space, is a major challenge to the judgment ability of premec home appliances in the enterprise market to stand at the forefront of new materials and new technologies

3. Challenges to enterprise management. How to resolve the risks of the paper market and enhance the effective response of enterprises. Research shows that many enterprises in Changzhou take the main measures to follow the market, increase the price of their main products, and transmit the rising pressure of raw materials to end consumers. Upstream and midstream enterprises generally determine the sales price of products according to the increase of raw materials, but it is difficult for downstream enterprises to effectively take corresponding price increase measures in the face of end customers. Once the increase is too large, it will inevitably reduce the order volume of end customers or lose end customers on a large scale. Downstream enterprises generally reduce the quality thickness or use relatively low-end pulp to reduce the quality of paper products to avoid the pressure of squeezing the profit space of enterprises caused by the rise of raw materials, But this is undoubtedly drinking poison to quench thirst, and ultimately damage the overall interests of the development of the industry

4. Challenges to technological innovation. The person in charge of a paper industry in Jintan admitted that at present, the technological content of the paper industry is not high, and there is little difference between the production technological level of leading enterprises in the industry (with an annual output of one million tons) and small and medium-sized enterprises (with an annual output of one hundred thousand tons), so there is not enough room for technological innovation to resolve the rising risk of raw materials

(II) opportunities faced by enterprises

1. The scale is not large, and the ship is small and easy to turn around. Changzhou paper industry enterprises are generally small in scale, sensitive to market price changes, and have the advantage of taking full advantage of the market cycle to adopt flexible business strategies

2. Market integration brings opportunities for development and expansion. Under the strong guidance of national policies, enterprises that already have "shipping tickets" and continue to increase investment in environmental protection and technological transformation are likely to seize the market share of enterprises closed, suspended and transferred in time and grow

3. Opportunities to establish standardized recycling enterprises. China's renewable resources industry is in the stage of industry adjustment, so it is necessary to establish an industry standard system and cultivate a number of standardized backbone recycling enterprises. At present, the standardized recycling enterprises still do not occupy the main market share. Only when the standardized enterprises obtain the main market, can they form long-term and stable cooperation with paper mills, so that they will not blindly raise the price and make the market price return to rationality

4. Opportunities to promote new forms of paper products. In the long run, green, environmental protection and wisdom are the general trend of the paper industry. The rise in the price of base paper and the pressure of public opinion are forcing paper enterprises to promote a more green and recyclable new paper industry. For example, in preparation for the "double 11" in 2017, Suning logistics launched a more portable and easy to carry "shared express box". The shared express box is a square plastic box when used. After signing, the courier will fold it into a plastic plate and take it back

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